Some ideas for what comes next, May 2026
Nathan Lambert maps the next AI phase across agents, open models, compute, and power struggles.
Nathan Lambert argues that 2026 AI progress is becoming higher-stakes, with model capabilities, work patterns, economics, and real-world risks all escalating. He says open models still lack a true Claude Code and Opus 4.5-style agent moment, and Gemini has no clear competitor to Claude Code or Codex yet. The essay also tracks Mythos, American open-model momentum, frontier-lab competition, and mounting intervention from governments and other power structures.
This article is Nathan Lambert's commentary on where the AI industry is heading after May 2026. He believes that AI's influence is rising year over year, and 2026 in particular does not look like it will offer any breathing room: model capabilities keep improving, workflows are changing rapidly, the AI economy is beginning to become real, while real-world risks and social conflicts are also harder to avoid. The core of the article is not a single product launch, but rather using several emerging trends to judge the industry landscape ahead.
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